The first Democratic debate of the 2020 campaign season is over.  Ten of the candidates have had their somewhat fair share of the two hours to make an impression on the American people.  Who fared well and who did themselves no favors?

Let’s start with the frontrunner on the stage, Senator Elizabeth Warren.  She made no mistakes, answered virtually all of her questions well, and most of the time appeared to be the smartest candidate on the stage.  She looked pale, and once or twice answered a serious question smiling in a way that could be construed as off-kilter.  Net result?  She stays in the race but didn’t do herself any huge favors.  At most, she confirmed her frontrunner status without blowing the competition away.  Her body language was accomplished and professional on stage.  To be clear: she did very well, but expectations were also highest for her.

Next, Senator Cory Booker.  He was one of the bi-lingual candidates, answering in Spanish occasionally.  At times, he tended toward the rhetorically empty answer.  He had passion, but often looked at the camera with a fixed expression that perhaps seemed a bit too intense.  His body language was initially tense and remained a little too much so – his fixed expression didn’t make him seem presidential.  Net, he didn’t do well enough to break out of the pack.

Up next, Senator Amy Klobuchar.  In some ways, she seemed the most comfortable on stage, but her smile didn’t reach her eyes.  She looked almost jaded with the whole experience and tended toward the bland in her answers.  In sum, I don’t think she stood out enough to make a difference.

Then there’s former Representative Beto O’Rourke.  One of the bi-lingual candidates, Beto had some very strong moments, but also some alarmingly weak ones.  Secretary Julian Castro cornered him on the immigration issue, besting him on an exchange about a detailed section of the law.  Beto was caught off guard and looked unprepared at that moment.  His moments of clarity and passion may keep him alive a little longer, but I don’t think he’s in the final cut.

Former HUD Secretary Castro.  His was one of the surprisingly strong performances of the evening, bi-lingual and impressively assured.  So if he can stay in the race, he may have propelled himself forward this evening.  He was very strong on immigration, and women’s rights, but vague on guns. His lowered eyelids make him look sleepy, a bit distant, and even arrogant.  That impression goes away when he starts talking, but given that most Americans will react to his visual image first, that’s going to be a handicap.

Then we get to the bottom five.

Mayor Bill de Blasio probably helped his candidacy, but he did it mostly by interrupting other people, since he wasn’t getting much air time.  Whether that was enough to keep him in the race is an open question.  The Mayor had some strong answers on gun control, and getting things done.  He told a great story about his dad.  He came across as aggressive and too loud, being the first candidate to interrupt someone else’s time.  Overall, I don’t think he’ll be the nominee.

Representative Tulsi Gabbard had the best answer on Afghanistan, effectively demolishing Representative Tim Ryan on that score by getting him confused over the difference between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, at least temporarily in the heat of the moment.  She played her military service card effectively.  But at other moments, she seemed a bit like a space cadet, and her military bearing came across as stiff and uncomfortable frequently during her answers.  She’s not going to be the nominee.

Representative Tim Ryan warmed up a bit as he answered his (infrequent) questions, but overall he was the candidate who most looked like the proverbial deer in the headlights.  The Afghanistan exchange probably killed him, if his general weakness didn’t.  Not a contender.

John Delaney, former Representative from Maryland, was probably the least memorable candidate visually and in terms of his answers.  He didn’t get much air time, and his pleas for bi-partisanship sounded weak and old-fashioned in the current political climate.  He also plastered a silly smile on his face on occasion, seemingly divorced from his answers, almost as an afterthought.  He’s toast.

Governor Jay Inslee looks like a governor from central casting – for a film made 20 years ago.  He was nervous and stiff, and his answers didn’t help him stand out from the crowd.  He was strongest on climate change, his signature issue, but nowhere near strong enough to keep his candidacy alive.  He’s a goner.

Overall, I would say the winners were Warren and Castro.  And the most egregious losers were Inslee, Delaney, Ryan, Gabbard, and perhaps O’Rourke, because of his low moments and despite his highs.

Please note that I’m basing this instant analysis on rhetoric and body language.  I did my best to ignore the politics for the purposes of these ratings, so in your comments no need to wax political.

On to Thursday!